Larry Ness Free Nba Pick April 19 2009
Larry Ness’ 10* NBA 1st Round Total
The Hawks ended an eight-year playoff drought last season and in the first round of the postseason, never backed down from the eventual champs, the Boston Celtics. The Celtics prevailed over the Hawks but needed seven games. Atlanta ’snuck ‘ into last year’s postseason with the worst record of any playoff team () but Atlanta’s goal this year was to play well enough to earn home court advantage.
The 47-35 Hawks did just that and with a No. 4 seeding, open the 2009 playoffs at home vs the Miami Heat. The Heat are quite a story themselves this year. Miami won the 2005-06 NBA title by beating the Magic, as one of the league’s best young players (Wade) and one of it’s legends (Shaq), led the way. However, Wade was hurt for most of last season and Shaq was traded away. Just two seasons removed from a title, the Heat finished an embarrassing 15-67. Wade’s return to health and the drafting of Michael Beasley (No. 2 overall pick) and Mario Chalmers brought new hope to South Florida this year. With Wade (30.2-5.0-7.5) putting up MVP-like numbers plus Beasley (13.9-5.4 / shot 47.2 percent) and Chalmers (10.0-4.9 APG) both having productive if not spectacular rookie years, the Heat earned the East’s No. 5 seed with a 43-39 record. Haslem (10.4-8.1) has played well all season plus getting O’Neal (13.0-5.4 in 27 games) and Moon (7.1-4.5 in 26 games) from the Raptors (for Marion), has worked out very well. The Hawks feature a superb backcourt trio. The starters are Johnson (21.4-4.4-5.8) and Bibby 914.9-3.5-5.0), with Murray (12.2), who was unwanted in Detroit (think he’s glad to be out of there?), becoming a terrific reserve. Atlanta’s young frontcourt is the envy of many a franchise, led by power forward Josh Smith (15.6-7.2), small forward Marvin Williams (13.7-6.2) and center Al Horford (11.5-9.3). The veteran Evans (7.2) filled in nicely for Williams recently (Williams is ready to go here) and Pachulia (6.2-5.7) is a steady backup at center. This will be a competitive series but what caught my eye in looking at the team’s four regular season meetings was this. Despite Wada’s ability to put points on the board and Atlanta’s scoring depth, the four regular season games averaged a puny 167 PPG, as two games totaled exactly 160 and the other two, exactly 174. So what was the opening total in this Game 1? Try 187, or 20 points ABOVE the four-game average of the series and the ‘move’ was on the ‘under.’ I quick check of the injury report shows that for Miami, Haslem (thumb), Moon (groin) and O’Neal (calf) are all probable and for Atlanta, Williams (back) is about ready to resume his role in the starting lineup, or at lest be able to play significant minutes. I’m siding with the oddsmakrers on this one and making a HUGE play on the ‘over’ in this game.
Eastern Conf 10* Total on Mia/Atl Over.
