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Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics

Prediction: Boston Celtics

I’m laying the points with BOSTON. The Celtics clearly miss Kevin Garnett. However, they’ve still got plenty of talent. They’re also still the champs (for now) and I expect Saturday’s loss to be a real wake-up call. Note that the Celts are a highly profitable 31-13-2 ATS the last 46 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss.

Additionally, note that they were 12-5 ATS (15-2 SU) this season after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Center Kendrick Perkins summed up the champs’ mentality: “You’ve got to be angry. It’s the playoffs and we were at home. I’m going to be mad all the way up until after we get the win.” Yes, the Bulls Game 1 victory was impressive. Keep in mind that they were just 13-28 on the road this season though. Also, note that they typically don’t play well after a big upset win. In fact, they’re just 13-27-1 ATS (11-30 SU) the last 41 times that they were coming off a SU win when listed as an underdog. Sure, the Bulls would love to win. However, even if they don’t win this game, they will have already “accomplished their mission” by having split these first two games. I expect the “angry” champs to elevate their level of play and I look for that to lead to a convincing win and cover. *Personal Favorite
UNDER spurs/mavs

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Game Time: 4/20/2009 9:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I’m playing on the Spurs and Mavericks to finish UNDER the total. After Game 1 finished above the total, we’re now getting a little bit higher of an over/under line to work with. While that higher number provides us with some extra line value, I expect a much lower-scoring game. Even with the Game 1 result, the Mavericks have still seen the UNDER go 26-16 on the road this season. They’ve also still seen the UNDER go 11-6-1 their last 18 visits to San Antonio. Additionally, note that they’ve seen the UNDER go 18-10 after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. Even with the Game 1 result, the Spurs have still seen the UNDER go 91-59 (excluding pushes) the last 150 times that they faced a team with a winning record. Now that they’re trailing in a playoff series, I expect the Spurs to crank up the defensive intensity. Note that the UNDER is 21-7 the last 28 times that the Spurs were trailing in a playoff series. That includes a profitable 7-2 mark their last nine in that situation. Look for those numbers to improve and for the final combined score to finish below what I believe is a very generous total. *Top Southwest Division Total